22:30 UK, 3rd May 2015, by Agrimoney.com 

Brazil's sugar exports will fall, a little, in 2015-16 for a third successive season despite a recovery in cane production, as mills divert more crop to making ethanol, US farm officials said. The US Department of Agriculture's Brasilia bureau, in its first estimate for Brazil's cane crop for the season which started last month, pegged it at 648m tonnes, a rise of 19.4m tonnes year on year.

The increase reflects a an expectation of a 590m-tonne harvest in the key Centre South region, up from 570.6m tonnes last year, despite dryness in January which raised some market concerns. "Rainfall during the October-March period was above the historical average, except for a 20-day dry spell in January, thus contributing to a larger overall sugar cane crop," the bureau said in a report.

Ethanol vs sugar

However, Brazilian production of sugar itself will rise by only 150,000 tonnes, or 0.4%, to 36.35m tonnes, the briefing said, citing a switch to pushing an increased proportion of cane towards making ethanol.

Estimates for Brazilian Centre South cane harvest, 2015-16

Agroconsult: 620m tonnes
Safras: 598m tonnes
Conab: 592.7m tonnes
USDA attache report: 590m tonnes
International Sugar Organisation: 581m tonnes
FO Licht: 580m tonnes

Sugar production will account for 43% of cane in 2015-16, down 0.5 points year on year, with the balance used to make ethanol, whose appeal is being boosted by an increase to 27% in the mandated level of the biofuel which must be blended into gasoline. As for hydrous ethanol - used by cars which rely on pure ethanol for fuel, rather than that blended with gasoline – it is "expected to remain price competitive with gasoline during the season", underpinning its appeal.

Six-year low

With domestic sugar consumption increasing, the bureau forecast Brazilian sugar exports in 2015-16 down 200,000 tonnes at 24.35m tonnes.

Estimates for Brazilian Centre South sugar output, 2015-16

Conab: 33.7m tonnes
USDA attache report: 36.0m tonnes
FO Licht: 31.8m tonnes
Safras: 31m tonnes

That would represent a six-year low for shipments from what is by far the biggest exporting country, and a third successive annual decline from the record 27.65m tonnes set in 2012-13. The report comes in the early stages of the 2015-16 cane crushing season, which has attracted a wide variation of estimates amid uncertainty over damage from the dearth of rain in January, and potential longer-term effects from a more severe and long-lasting drought last year. A revival in the real since late March has also spurred ideas of Brazilian exports losing some competitiveness.